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Moody’s Upgrades Panama Financial Rating

The prestigious Moody’s rating service has upgraded its outlook on Panama to positive from stable, in a move with far-ranging implications for the country’s economy.

Moody’s is essentially putting its stamp of approval on Panama’s growth and making it easier for the government to borrow money.

“Two key drivers” provided the basis for Moody’s positive outlook, according to a statement from the agency. For one, there is “Moody’s expectation that the debt trend will improve over the coming years supported by fiscal consolidation and compliance with the fiscal rule.” Reading through the rhetoric, Moody’s is saying that Panama’s government is doing a good job of managing its debt.

And the second factor is “Panama’s GDP growth rate continues to outperform peers, supporting its economic strength.” That’s a basic statement that Moody’s believe all the reports on Panama’s economic strength are not simply hyperbole or a short-term anomaly. Moody’s is saying that Panama’s growth is real and should continue to outperform other countries.

As we’ve reported in recent weeks, Panama’s economy is surging, posting the highest growth in the region.

Moody’s says its affirmation of Panama’s “Baa2 issuer rating” reflects “credit strengths including strong economic growth and moderate debt burden and debt affordability that balance the credit challenges stemming from its exposure to global developments as well as its still-developing track record of compliance with fiscal rules,” Moody’s writes.

Moody’s expect Panama’s government to continue to reduce the deficit, even while maintaining spending on big infrastructure projects, such as the Panama metro.

“The government has made significant efforts to increase transparency on fiscal and debt management in addition to creating an independent fiscal council to evaluate government budgets, both credit positive developments,” Moody’s says.

Moody’s also notes that Panama’s economy has more than doubled over the last decade, with per capita incomes increasing to $13,670 in 2016 from $6,029 in 2007. “Panama’s investment-driven high growth rates will remain a distinct credit strength,” Moody’s writes. “Given prospects for continued and robust infrastructure spending, we expect capital accumulation and productivity gains will support Panama’s high potential growth, which we estimate at 5.5 percent.”